Forecasting – Tim Tebow

23 11 2009

With the final home game for one of the most decorated college football players in history this Saturday, we’ve decided to look ahead to what will be the future for Tim Tebow in the National Football League.

There are two basic ideas that we want to get across about Tebow.

1) He’s not a first round NFL draft pick.

2) Barring a change in his skill set, Tim Tebow is not an NFL Quarterback.

That being said, a little exploration of our statements is probably necessary. We do not think that Tim Tebow belongs in the first round of the draft. That does NOT mean that we think he will be taken later. In all likelihood, he will go somewhere in the 20’s. Perhaps to a team like Jacksonville, which is in dire need of headlines and good press and could play the “local boy” angle to get some fans in the stadium. We also think that it would be best for Tebow if he did not go in the first round. The change to an NFL style offense will be rough (and a possible position change, but we’ll cover that later), he doesn’t need the pressure of being a first round pick and potentially a “franchise savior.”

Tebow's Future?

On our other point, it’s the truth. (You see what we did there?) Urban Meyer’s offense is unique, and that means he’s not helping his QB’s if their goal is the NFL. Look at the most recent Meyer QB to go to the NFL, Alex Smith. Right now Smith is a career 55% passer with a QB rating of 66.5 (stat link) Not quite JaMarcus Russell bad, but still not close to good. Even this year, when he’s supposedly playing “well”, he’s only thrown two more TD’s than INT’s, and he’s had a passer rating higher than 90 once. (Week 7, in the second half @ Houston). We’re not saying that Tebow will be Smith, but it’s a comparison.

Which bring us to the idea of a possible position change. He’s essentially to slow to be a running back in the NFL, not to mention his running style would lead to a short shelf life in that role. We do not know how good his hands are, but Tight End is certainly an option. He’s quick enough to get open, and physical enough to block. Still we’re not buying it.

“But couldn’t he be a Pat White type ‘Wildcat’ QB?” Simply put…no. Teams run the wildcat to confuse defenses in an effort to create big plays. Pat White helps this effort because he is a gifted open field runner. Tebow is not.

Tebow will NOT be this.

Pat White is also rather fast. As we’ve already covered, Tebow, while not “slow” certainly isn’t “fast” either. If teams wanted to average three yards and a cloud of dust with their wildcat playbook, then Tebow would be the guy. But that’s not the goal of the offense. So to say it again, Tim Tebow is not a QB in the NFL.

To wrap this up, we think Tebow will go in the first round, but he doesn’t deserve to be there. He’ll probably have to change positions, TE is a possibility, as is a defensive front seven position, but that would likely take awhile. Our best guess – you won’t see Tim Tebow making an impact on a football field after the National Championship game for at least three years.

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3 responses

24 11 2009
cobber

As much as I hate to admit it, Tebow is a pretty good passer. I think this fact gets overlooked because of his “scramble and run” habit. With this in mind, it seems possible that Tebow could be utilized as a pocket quarterback…not necessarily as a starter right away (and not necessarily a TE, either). My personal projection: he will land with a consistently mediocre team and will walk a career path similar to Brady Quinn’s.

But you know more than me, Mr. Truthman

24 11 2009
truth317

It’s not his actual passing skill that people (including us) “overlook”. Its his ability to read defense and understand where to throw. Urban Meyer and Dan Mullen (UF’s OC until this year, now the HC at Miss. St.) run an offense that is pretty simple passing wise. It’s nowhere near an NFL playbook. Think Vince Young at Texas. That’s the problem with Tebow being a pocket passer. Interesting take, though.

22 07 2010
Tyler

Its really not fair to compare Alex Smith to Tebow. Sure they had the same offense. But Smith dealt with what, 5 different coordinators? Barring that, I don’t see Tebow having any problem with adjusting to the Broncos scheme, givenhis work ethic, he’ll be able to pick it up. We will see if he can put his knowledge to use via winning in the NFL, however.

I don’t see how people can say he’s not a good passer, look at his completion percentage in college, and how few interceptions he threw. He threw in 4 years, 3 as a starter, a couple more than Matt Ryan did his Senior year at BC.

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